Prison Early Release Scheme: What Is It, And What Are The Implications?

Readers will likely have seen a lot of coverage in the news regarding the Early Release Scheme.

The Sentencing Act 2026 (‘SA 2026’ henceforth) has introduced a wide range of amendments, including changes to suspended sentence orders, custodial sentences and the release provisions applicable to Standard Determinate Sentences (SDS’). In this blog, I will focus on the early release provisions introduced by SA 2026.

To better understand these changes, it is helpful to briefly consider the position before the SA 2026 came into force. Under the existing framework, prisoners serving a Standard Determinate Sentence were generally released automatically at either the halfway point or, for certain more serious offences, at the two-thirds point of their sentence. When released in the community, they would then serve the remainder of their sentence on licence. An SDS is a fixed-term custodial sentence which is divided between time spent in custody and time spent in the community.

A similar scheme, known as the Standard Determinate Sentence 40% scheme (SDS40’), was introduced in September 2024 as a temporary measure to relieve pressure on prison capacity. SDS40 allowed certain eligible prisoners who would otherwise have been released at the 50% point of their sentence to be released after serving just 40% of their sentence. The scheme did not apply to all prisoners; certain offences and categories of sentence were excluded.

Despite the introduction of SDS40, significant pressure remains on prison capacity. The Institute for Government reported in August 2026 that adult men’s prisons were operating at around 97% capacity, only slightly below the peak of 99% in summer 2024. The prison crisis is one of the main reasons behind the introduction of the new Early Release Scheme.

What is the Early Release Scheme, and when will it come into force?

The Early Release Scheme, known as the Progression Model, is planned to come into force from October 2026. Its implementation will be phased across ten tranches, with releases taking place between October 2026 and June 2027. Importantly, the model will apply both to eligible prisoners already in custody and to those entering the prison system in the future.

The Progression Model is an automatic release system which changes how eligible prisoners serving Standard Determinate Sentences will serve their sentence.

It will apply to adults serving an SDS, which is a fixed-term custodial sentence with a definite end date. Under the new model, eligible prisoners who would previously have been released at the 40% or 50% point will have a minimum release point of one-third of their sentence. Prisoners whose sentences previously carried a two-thirds automatic release point will generally have a minimum release point of one-half of their sentence.

To illustrate, if an eligible offender receives a six-year custodial sentence and is released at the one-third point, they will serve two years in custody. The remaining four years would then be served in the community, subject to the applicable licence conditions and supervision arrangements.

It will be important to mention that release at these points can be lost for serious breaches of prison rules. Prisoners who commit misconduct may receive additional custodial days and may remain in custody beyond the minimum release point.

Who does this not apply to?

The Progression Model does not apply to every prisoner serving an SDS. The Government has introduced specific offence-based exclusions, including rape, serious child sexual offences, grooming offences, offences relating to unlawful killing and indecent assault.

Other types of sentences are also outside the scope of the Progression Model. These include life sentences and extended determinate sentences. Certain other indeterminate sentences and sentences for offenders of particular concern are also excluded.

For prisoners serving sentences which remain subject to a two-thirds release point, the position will also depend on the particular sentence and offence. The legislation provides for a 50% minimum release point for certain prisoners who were previously subject to release at two-thirds, while some sentences remain subject to different arrangements.

What happens following release from prison?

For eligible prisoners released at the one-third point, the sentence can be understood as being divided into three stages.
The first third is served in custody. Following release, the second third is served in the community under a period of intensive supervision by the probation service. The final third is then served in the community without the same level of active supervision.

Not every prisoner will simply be released after one-third of their sentence and then receive no supervision for the remainder. The Progression Model provides for strict licence conditions and intensive supervision following release; higher-risk offenders may remain subject to supervision for longer.

Prisoners will also remain liable to recall in accordance with the applicable recall provisions. Therefore, although the offender may no longer be in custody, release does not mean that the sentence has effectively come to an end.

Our criminal defence team and our prison law team advises on a range of offences and issues, and if your matter ends up in the police station or court, we will guide and represent you through the entire process. We encourage anyone seeking legal advice in this area to contact our team on 0330 822 3451.